The latest IMD heavy rainfall forecast has placed a broad belt of eastern and central India on alert. The India Meteorological Department has warned of extremely heavy rainfall of 21 cm or more at isolated places over the coming days, driven by a deep depression currently lying over north interior Odisha and the adjoining areas of Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal. The system is expected to move west-northwestwards across the country’s midsection, dragging a heavy rain band with it.
What the IMD heavy rainfall forecast says
In its press release dated 28 July 2026, the IMD laid out a day-wise sequence of extremely heavy rainfall (defined as 21 cm or more in 24 hours) at isolated places. The warning follows the projected track of the deep depression as it weakens and drifts inland:
- Odisha – 28 July
- Chhattisgarh – 28 and 29 July
- East Madhya Pradesh – 29 July
- Vidarbha – 29 and 30 July
- West Madhya Pradesh – 30 July
- Gujarat region – 31 July
Alongside the extreme rain warning, the department noted that monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal to above normal over northwest and central India during the next four to five days. That points to a sustained active monsoon phase rather than a single burst, which matters a great deal for river catchments that are already running high at the end of July.
Weather tomorrow: the 29 July outlook
If you are searching for weather tomorrow, the short answer for much of central India is: wet, and locally very wet. On 29 July the focus of the heaviest rain shifts inland from the Odisha coast. Chhattisgarh remains in the extremely heavy rainfall zone for a second consecutive day, while east Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha are added to the list. Districts along the Mahanadi, Wainganga and upper Narmada basins are the ones to watch most closely.
Odisha, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal should see rainfall intensity taper gradually as the system moves away, though widespread moderate rain and gusty winds are still likely. Over northwest India, including Delhi-NCR, the monsoon trough keeps thunderstorm and rain chances elevated, with humid conditions and subdued daytime temperatures. In Delhi, IMD observations on 28 July showed a thunderstorm with rain, a temperature near 24.6°C and humidity at 100 per cent – conditions typical of an active trough sitting close to the capital.
Because a deep depression can shift track by 50 to 100 km within a single forecast cycle, the safest approach is to check the IMD district-wise warning and nowcast pages each morning rather than relying on a bulletin issued 24 hours earlier.
India heavy rain and ISRO satellites: the eyes above the monsoon
Every warning of this kind rests on a foundation built in space. The link between India heavy rain and ISRO satellites is direct: the IMD’s ability to spot a low-pressure area forming over the Bay of Bengal, watch it deepen into a depression and then follow it inland depends almost entirely on continuous satellite coverage.
Geostationary weather watch
ISRO’s INSAT-3D series – INSAT-3D, INSAT-3DR and the newer INSAT-3DS – sits in geostationary orbit roughly 36,000 km above the equator, staring at the same face of the Earth around the clock. Each carries a multi-channel imager and an atmospheric sounder. In practical terms, that means forecasters get fresh imagery of the monsoon system every half hour, and can switch to rapid-scan mode over a smaller sector when a system is intensifying quickly.
From these images, ground processing produces the quantities that actually feed a heavy rain warning: cloud-top temperature, which indicates how tall and vigorous a thunderstorm cluster is; outgoing longwave radiation, a proxy for deep convection; atmospheric motion vectors that reveal steering winds; and satellite-derived rainfall estimates that fill in over oceans and remote terrain where rain gauges simply do not exist.
Polar-orbiting and radar support
Geostationary satellites give continuity; polar-orbiting spacecraft give detail. Scatterometer instruments on ISRO’s ocean-observing satellites map surface wind speed and direction over the Bay of Bengal, helping pin down the centre and strength of a developing depression. Radar imaging satellites in the RISAT class see through cloud cover, which is exactly what is needed after the rain has fallen, when flood inundation has to be mapped under a thick overcast. Those flood maps are shared through the National Remote Sensing Centre and reach state disaster management authorities within hours.
From satellite pixel to public alert
Satellite data alone does not make a forecast. It is assimilated into numerical weather prediction models run by the IMD and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, blended with radar returns, automatic weather station readings and radiosonde ascents. The output becomes the colour-coded warning system the public sees: green for no action, yellow for be aware, orange for be prepared, and red for take action. When you see a red alert for a district on the IMD map, you are looking at the end product of a chain that began with a satellite pixel.
Current conditions across major cities
IMD observations recorded on the afternoon of 28 July 2026 show how unevenly this monsoon spell is distributed:
| City | Conditions | Temperature | Humidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delhi | Thunderstorm with rain | 24.6°C | 100% |
| Kolkata | Slight intermittent rain | 28.4°C | 91% |
| Mumbai | Haze, strong westerly winds | 30.0°C | 79% |
| Pune | Overcast sky | 26.8°C | 77% |
| Hyderabad | Overcast sky | 28.0°C | 74% |
| Ahmedabad | Haze | 30.0°C | 62% |
| Bengaluru | Generally cloudy | 29.6°C | 55% |
| Chennai | Generally cloudy | 37.0°C | 50% |
Chennai stands out as the outlier at 37°C, a reminder that the southeast coast sits in the monsoon’s rain shadow during July and waits for the northeast monsoon in October.
What people in the alert zone should do
Extremely heavy rainfall warnings are not routine. Rainfall of 21 cm in a day overwhelms urban drainage almost everywhere in India and can turn small seasonal streams into dangerous torrents within an hour. Residents of the flagged districts should avoid non-essential travel on the peak warning day, stay clear of causeways, low bridges and underpasses, and never attempt to drive or walk through moving floodwater.
Those living in hilly parts of Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and eastern Madhya Pradesh should be alert to landslides and treat any new cracks, seepage or tilting trees on a slope as a signal to move. Farmers with harvested produce in the open should secure it before the peak day. It is also worth charging phones and power banks in advance, keeping some cash and drinking water on hand, and downloading the IMD’s Mausam app along with the Damini lightning alert app, since thunderstorm activity accompanies most of these systems.
Frequently asked questions
What counts as heavy rainfall in IMD terminology?
The IMD classifies 24-hour rainfall of 6.45 to 11.5 cm as heavy, 11.6 to 20.4 cm as very heavy, and 21 cm or more as extremely heavy. The current warning sits in that top bracket.
What is a deep depression?
It is a low-pressure system one step below a cyclonic storm on the IMD’s intensity scale, with sustained winds of roughly 52 to 61 km/h. Deep depressions rarely produce cyclone-level winds over land, but they are prolific rain producers, and monsoon systems of this kind are responsible for a large share of India’s July and August flooding.
Where can I check the official forecast for my district?
The IMD website at mausam.imd.gov.in publishes district-wise warnings, nowcasts valid for the next few hours, and a five-day district rainfall forecast. The Mausam mobile app carries the same information, and state disaster management authorities issue localised advisories on their own channels.
The bottom line
The current IMD heavy rainfall forecast describes a classic inland-tracking monsoon depression, moving from Odisha through Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh towards Gujarat over roughly four days. With the monsoon expected to stay normal to above normal over northwest and central India through early August, saturated soils and full reservoirs leave little margin for absorbing another intense spell. Watching the satellite loop and the district warning map together is the most reliable way to stay ahead of it.
Weather situations evolve rapidly. Always confirm the latest position and warnings with official IMD bulletins before making travel or safety decisions.
